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By A.J. O'CONNELL

Hour Staff Writer


"Dr. Mel" Goldstein might be one of the few people who actually appreciates the ever-changing weather in Connecticut.

"You know, Connecticut is one of the most fascinating regions... We get the whole range of weather," said Goldstein, 64, before rattling off a list of weather events most people try not to think about: tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, heat waves, blizzards and the like.

Goldstein, chief meteorologist for News Channel 8 and founder of Western Connecticut State University's meteorology program, loves them all. This September, the venerable weatherman published a book, "Dr. Mel's Connecticut Climate Book" (Garnet Books, $24.95), that explores the state, it's climate, and every major weather event that's occurred in the 90 by 50 mile state since the pilgrims arrived.

"There are very few places that get the full range of weather," said Goldstein. "Norwalk averages 20 inches of snow a year. Norwich, in the hills, averages 120 inches of snow. You can get these fluxuations in a single town."

Goldstein has been planning his book since he arrived to teach meteorology at WestConn in the early '70s. At that time his textbook was "The Climate of Connecticut," written by Joseph Brumbach in 1965, an update to a 1939 volume, "The Weather and Climate of Connecticut," by Joseph Milton Kirk. Brumbach's book was mostly graphs and tables, said Goldstein.

"I had the goal of updating this book," he said. "I tried to provide a narrative for every major weather event since the pilgrims arrived."

That includes the little ice age which froze the harbors so that people could walk to New York, the blizzard of 1988 and Fairfield County's ice storm of 1973,immortalized by the novel and film "The Ice Storm." The book also addresses climate change and global warming.

"Yes, it has warmed up over the last dozen years or so. The fact that there has been warming is indisputable," said Goldstein.

But the cause of the warming, how long the warming will continue and what might stop it are all unknowns, he said.

"I have trouble putting my arms around the fact that carbon dioxide is responsible for it," said Goldstein, who said that the issue of climate change has become both over-politicized and over-simplified. There are, he said, many unknown variables when it comes to the weather; the computer models used to predict the weather are based on six basic equations with seven unknown factors.

"I'm in the trenches," said Goldstein. "Every single day, I have to predict the weather. Our computer models are very limited in what we can provide once you get beyond three or four days... If I have trouble predicting the weather a week from now, can you really trust the forecast of what's going to happen 50 years from now or 100 years from now?" That said, Goldstein's research has shown him a definite pattern in the weather. Case in point: Connecticut, he said, is in for a major hurricane in the next 30 years.

This will not be a storm like 1985's Hurricane Gloria or 1954's Hurricane Carol. This, he said, will be akin to the Hurricane of 1938, which flattened homes along the coast of the state and flooded the inland regions. Goldstein called the Hurricane of 1938 "our Katrina."

"If we were to get a repeat of that, our infrastructure would be completely wiped out," said Goldstein. He said that such a storm would cause huge loss of life, of property and be a blow to the economy.

Although the effects of a storm like that terrify Goldstein, the weather events themselves fascinate him, as they have since he was a child.

"I don't hope for it, because I know what's going to happen," said Goldstein, who lives on the beach in East Haven. "I live with a great wife. Out of respect for her, I have mixed feelings about seeing my deck wash away and having water come into my living room."

Goldstein loves the weather, but his mission in life changed in 1996, when he was diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a cancer of the bone marrow. Doctors predicted the disease would kill him in three years. It has been 13 years since he was diagnosed, and though Goldstein had to give up teaching, he has continued to work at Channel 8 and work to raise both funds and awareness for multiple myeloma.A portion of the proceeds from this book will be contributed to the Dr. Mel Goldstein Multiple Myeloma Research Fund at the Yale Cancer Center.

"To help other people is the greatest experience I have," said Goldstein. He added that he is working on another book, although it's not about the weather, it's about the struggles and triumphs of cancer survivors. His working title is "Sketches of Strength."


For more information about "Dr. Mel" Goldstein or to order his book, visit http://www.drmelmyeloma.com.

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